BELMONT STAKES 2009
Final
When? Saturday, June 6
Where? ABC-TV at 6:27 ET
"No comment."
- Calvin Borel
All of the factual information contained herein is from other sources: Daily Racing Form, The New York Times, and The Saratogian. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.
How jacked is New York for the Belmont Stakes? On the day before the race, The New York Times had no articles on it. The Times does a very good job in covering horse racing, yet on the day before downstate New York's biggest race, they had no coverage - none, zero, nada, zip, nil. (Interesting how all of these words begin with "n" or "z.") In the days leading up to the Derby and the Preakness, they often had two - and sometimes three - pieces. For the Apple's big event (horse racing wise) - none. On a day they did cover the race, the paper-of-record predicted that attendance would be down between 30,000 to 40,000 from the originally anticipated crowd. That would be even more than the fall-off in the Preakness caused by Pimlico's decision to bar the BYOB tradition of prior runnings.
Why the drop? In case you haven't heard, there is neither a Triple Crown on the line, nor is Rachel Alexandra, the Preakness winner, appearing to challenge Mine That Bird. Now, I personally think a crowd of 50,000 for a race at Belmont for a not particularly inspiring edition of the Third Jewel is not all that bad, particularly when one considers that the typical Belmont Saturday crowd is lucky to hit five figures. There is a tremendous card, although we can assume that ABC will emulate NBC and not televise the Manhattan, a Grade I race that drew a field of 13. For my rant on this topic, see my blog entry for May 17.
Here is the field:
1) Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Garrett Gomez) - In his lone start on a dirt track - albeit the sloppy Churchill surface (we need an acronym for this observation since it will come up again, so let's use the snappy ATSCS - he ran his lowest Beyer this year (86) after performing decently on California's synthetic surfaces. So his fast dirt form is still unknown, making him a not unattractive pick if his morning line of 10-1 holds up.
2) Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) - He was well-fancied in the Derby going off at 5-1, but had a fair amount of trouble ("stumbled, steadied") in finishing 11th, 19 lengths back. His prior dirt Beyers (108, 98) are ones that warrant serious consideration, but he will be an unattractive 4-1, if not lower.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/Edgar Prado) - He is very similar in his Beyer profile to Chocolate Candy, including the designation of ATSCS, with decent performances in California, but a 15th at Churchill. I find it odd that he continued to work on Keeneland's polytrack rather than take a spin at Belmont. His connections are top-notch, but it is hard to pick him to win.
4) Summer Bird (Tim Ice/Kent Desormeaux) - I started to like this one a little bit for the Derby, where he ran 6th, after a nice finish in the Arkansas Derby. He is sired by the Belmont bomber Birdstone, so his pedigree may not be an obstacle for this event.
5) Luv Gov (Wayne Lukas/Miguel Mena) - A maiden winner who was not embarrassed in his 8th place Preakness finish (of 13 entrants), he appears to be an unlikely winner. D. Wayne said that was his Belmont prep. Even though Lukas is one of the most successful trainers in history, his next graded stakes winner will be his first since 2007.
6) Charitable Man (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia) - I am developing a very bad habit of betting any horse with this trainer/rider combo, no matter how much they appear not to fit. In fact, the more unlikely the fit, the better I like it. This guy (the colt, that is) definitely fits. He is 3-for-3 on dirt, including two graded stakes wins at Belmont. His distance breeding is impeccable (Lemon Drop Kid/Saint Ballado mare), and has trained nicely since his May 9 win in the Peter Pan.
7) Mine That Bird (Chip Woolley/Calvin Bo-rail) - He proved he was for real with his dramatic Preakness finish. Borel's "no comment" was in response to whether the gelding would have passed Rachel if the Preakness were a little bit longer. My guess is that his response would have been "No!!" were the filly entered. Borel is trying to make history - again - by becoming the first jock ever to win a year's Triple Crown races riding different animals.
8) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Julien Leparoux) - He followed his last-place Derby finish with a decent 4th in the Preakness. He is one of two Lukas entrants and, if there is going to be a major upset, this colt could be the one.
9) Miner's Escape (Nick Zito/Jose Lezcano) - One of three entrants making their Triple Crown debut (Charitable Man and the next guy are the others), he appears to be clearly overmatched. That is exactly what one would have said (and I did) about Nick Zito's two recent Belmont winners.
10) Brave Victory (Nick Zito/Rajiv Maragh) - Ditto, and this one doesn't have the breeding.
SELECTIONS
You have two horses with good form on synthetic surfaces and unimpressive races on a sloppy track - Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff - who appear to be indistinguishable, and it is difficult to make a case for either. There is the seemingly overmatched group, each of whom is trained by Hall of Famers Lukas and Zito - Luv Gov, Flying Private, Miner's Escape and Brave Victory. Then there is the group that has shown definite promise on dirt - Dunkirk, Summer Bird and Charitable Man, any one of whom could win and not be a shocker. Finally, there is a classic winner and an excellent second in a second one - Mine That Bird. I'll be rooting for him and picking him. I think Charitable Man is the most likely upsetter, with Summer Bird a minor bomber and Flying Private a major one.
WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?
Barton, the handicapping cat, has shown no interest in this year's Triple Crown races. He cannot stand going to the vet, and I am beginning to suspect that he is expressing an aversion to the drug use in thoroughbred racing. We can hope there will be improvements in this area for next year's Crown, but I am not holding my breath.
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PREAKNESS STAKES
Final
When? Saturday at about 6:00
Where? NBC-TV
"Usually the police are chasing me, not escorting me. The last time I ended up in jail."
-Chip Woolley on his escort to Pimlico
All of the factual information contained herein is from other sources: Daily Racing Form, New York Times, Saratogian, Thoroughbred Times, and Blood Horse. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.
This year's Preakness has been filled with controversy. Is it whether a filly should challenge the boys? Is it appropriate for the connections of some boys to play games to keep the girl out of the clubhouse? No, it was Pimlico's decision to prevent patrons from BYOBing to the infield. Interestingly, they did not do so the year following one customer's decision to run out on to the track during the running of a race and get in with the ones who were supposed to be there. Nor did they do so because of the widespread knowledge that the Preakness infield behavior could rival that of both the Derby and the Indy 500 (is there an infield at Indy?) No, it was because video of said conduct was being circulated on YouTube.
One of the more interesting events is the Porta-John racing. Now as my mind went wild with how one would race a portable toilet, it appears that the race takes place on top of a row of the structures, with other patrons either spraying beer on the contestants or throwing full cans of beer at them. The ban has inspired an effort to boycott the Preakness, and as one young man said, "It used to be our thing, and now it has a more corporate feel to it." He is absolutely right. Who among us has not come upon a line of porta-johns and not wanted to climb up on the first one to challenge the times of some of the great ones of the sport? If the attitude of Pimlico existed in Greece in the 19th century, we would not have the Olympic Games. OK, enough of this nonsense, what about the race?
The match-up between the filly and the "unexpected" Derby winner has me pretty excited. The filly is a great story in her own right - she was 27-1 in her first race where she beat only three others - but the gelding is the stuff of movies. The trainer is walking around on crutches because of a motorcycle accident that has also interfered with his bareback riding. The trainer and owner "met" at a bar fight where they seemed to be more than disinterested observers. Their post-Derby press conference is one of the most interesting I have ever seen. The trainer and owners came across as surly, although I suspected there was a reason. I think they were so shocked that they won, they could not deal with it. They had that "deer in the headlight look" that often accompanies unexpected newsmakers. Their stated objective in coming to Churchill was the dream of a 6th place [sic] finish. I am happy to note that the initial impression they left does not appear to reflect the reality. First of all, trainer Woolley made a big point of thanking the gelding's trainer in Canada for the horse's success. It may not seem like a big deal, but it is a graciousness you do not often see in any endeavor, let alone horse racing. The day after the race, the connections went out to the statue of Barbaro and spent 90 minutes giving those waiting in line roses from the garland that Mine That Bird wore. That brought a tear to my eye. So I understand the desire for Rachel to put on a show, but I think the Derby winner coming through in the Preakness would also be a great moment.
We also have the added feature of the Derby-winning jockey getting off the horse to move to another in the field. There are a lot of events that haven't happened in a long time - no unraced two-year old has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882, no filly has won the Preakness since 1924, etc. But this is the first time the Derby winner's jock moved to a competitor. After he won the Oaks, Calvin Borel said that Rachel Alexandra was the best horse he had ever been on. Since he had ridden Street Sense to his Derby win two years earlier, I was kind of surprised. But he repeated it the day after this year's Derby. OK, I believe him.
THE FIELD
1) Big Drama (David Fawkes/John Velazquez) - Only Rachel Alexandra has matched this colt's Beyer of 108, although she ran hers going a route of ground. He is a very intriguing possibility, being a disqualification away from entering this event with a six-race winning streak. Said disqual came in his only start as a three-year old, the 7-furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream in March, where he set the track record and did not win. He twice won stakes at 1 1/16 miles as a juvenile, including the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He has an ascending Beyer pattern over seven lifetime starts, culminating in the 108. The biggest question, of course, is whether a single start as a three-year old - and that one at 7 furlongs - gives him a sufficient base to compete here.
2) Mine That Bird (Chip Woolley/Mike Smith) - While I am not going to say this gelding's Derby win was as impressive as the effort turned in by Rachel Alexandra the day before, it sure as hell was impressive. This guy was waaaay back for a good part of the race. When he finally kicked in, he left his competitors looking like they were in quicksand, not mud, drawing off to a 6 3/4 length win, the biggest winning margin since Assault in his 1946 Triple Crown year. How does a horse that sold for $9,500 as a yearling, finish last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and 4th in the ungraded Sunland Derby, rock the racing world with such a dominating performance? You got me. It could be mediocre competition, but no one looked more mediocre than he going in. It could have been the track condition - a sealed sloppy track - but why did no other entrant handle it as well. It could have been a pronounced rail bias, something known to everyone watching the telecast, but apparently not to the jockeys of Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem who were treating the inside as though it were saturated with the swine flu virus. The other possibility is that is an animal who came into his true form at the absolute perfect time, particularly if you bet on him. He was the Canadian two-year old champion, and was purchased for the Derby after that season for $400K. His new owners were not pointing for the one in Kentucky, but the Sunland Derby in racing hotbed New Mexico. One suspects they are not unhappy with the outcome.
3) Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) - The third-place Derby horse has shown that he is - as they say in the business - a "useful" horse. He is now 5 for 7 lifetime, with wins in the Tampa Bay (Grade 3) and Illinois Derby (Grade 2). If you believe, as I do, that the healthy 3-year old boys are a mediocre lot - with the possible exception of the Derby winner - there is no reason this one cannot carry his mediocrity to a win in the Preakness.
4) Luv Gov (D. Wayne Lukas/Jamie Theriot) - There is a man in America praying quite heavily that this bomber does not do what Mine That Bird did in the Derby. If you are Elliott Spitzer, you are having nightmares about waking up Sunday morning and seeing the headlines in the Post and Daily News. His prayers should be answered, however, because this race is being used - and I am not making this up - as a Belmont Stakes prep. Had the Barbaro Stakes not been discontinued, he would have gone there. (Speaking of the Barbaro Stakes, this formerly was known as the Sir Barton Stakes. I will have to go back and check to see if Barton (the cat) felt so dissed after his namesake's losing the stake in his honor that his handicapping prowess has tailed off. I have yet to work on my excuse.) But, back to the race. Trainer Lukas has one of the most remarkable streaks in Triple Crown history. He trained six consecutive winners over three years - with four different horses. I put that up there with Woody Stephens' five consecutive Belmonts, but you never see it mentioned. Now? He has not won any of the 48 graded stakes he entered over the last two years. The colt required 10 starts to break his maiden (on Derby Day at Churchill, no less) and appears to be quite overmatched.
5) Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) - Going in to the Derby, I thought he was one of the three best colts in the division. When two of them declared from the field because of injury, he seemed to be the most likely winner. His chances were compromised when his departure from the gate resulted in cuts on his legs and a trail of blood over Churchill Downs. His Louisiana Derby Beyer of 104 on a sloppy track represents the third highest in the field. Nonetheless, there are legitimate questions about his quality, even if he did have a Derby excuse. I am also concerned about his level of fitness since he came into the Derby off a seven-week break, and could not have gotten much from his Derby run when his jockey refused to push him when it became clear he was going nowhere.
6) Terrain (Albert Stall/Jeremy Rose) - I could not figure out why he was here. But, he did run 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, ahead of the last place finisher, Mine That Bird, a head behind Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and a good 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes. I've learned my lesson (for now) - I am not saying he cannot win.
7) Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) - This is another colt who has demonstrated his honesty. After second-place finishes to Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire, he won the Arkansas Derby (Beyer 101), before finishing fourth in the Derby, not far behind Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man.
8) General Quarters (Tom McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) - Little did we know that the Derby's feel good story of an improbable dream would be upstaged by one wildly more improbable. At least this colt came to Churchill after a win in one of the major Derby preps, Keeneland's Blue Grass. His 10th place Derby finish, 17 1/2 lengths back of the winner, did little to inspire one to think that the Preakness will be his race. Keep in mind, however, that he does own one of the field's highest Beyers on a fast dirt track, a 102 in the 1 1/16 mile Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay.
9) Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) - The big question about him going to the Derby still is there. Can a colt with demonstrated proficiency on a synthetic track carry that form to a conventional dirt surface? We do not know unless a sloppy sealed track at Churchill Downs is your definition of conventional. Had Mine That Bird been blocked instead of squeezing through on the rail, this would have been the Derby winner with the lowest Beyer ever recorded (95) for America's greatest race. He figures to be a low price - perhaps even favored over the Derby winner - and I am still not willing to get on board.
10) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Alan Garcia) - After finishing last in the Derby at odds of 47-1, why not go to the Preakness? His Racing Form commentary reads thusly: "five wide into the first turn when within striking distance, held on well for five furlongs and stopped." Since the Preakness is run at 9 1/2 furlongs, his Derby effort is not suggesting he will be wearing the Black-Eyed Susans. The only reason to select him is if you think this is the year for absolute bombers winning each of the Triple Crown races.
11) Take the Points (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) - He should be a factor in this race, possibly compromising the chances of Rachel Alexandra. He figures to be going for the early lead, along with Big Drama, bringing the filly along in their wake. I had started to write that it is hard to see him as a serious contender, until I noticed that his Beyer top of 99 was earned on a dirt track. His declining figs since were two races on Santa Anita's poly, including a good 4th in the Santa Anita Derby.
12) Tone It Down (William Komlo/Mario Pino) - His claim to fame is finishing third in the Preakness prep, the $75,000 Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico. To say that field was nondescript would be charitable. No one had ever won a stakes race of any caliber, and the one that had participated in a graded stakes lost by 26 lengths.
13) Rachel Alexandra (Steve Asmussen/Calvin Borel) - That was one jaw dropping win in the Kentucky Oaks. At the quarter pole she was in second. A half-mile later she was in front by more than 20, running as if she were out for a morning gallop. Her Beyer of 108 - and, again, she was not running hard - has not been exceeded by any of the boys she will be facing on Saturday. Only five of her Preakness competitors have run a triple-digit Beyer, and each has only done it once. She has done it in her last four races, all stakes (three graded), with a combined margin of victory of almost 40 lengths. So no filly of her generation is going to beat her now, and now we will learn if colt or gelding can do it. I do not think any colt can, but maybe the gelding will. The one possible chink in her armor is that her two career losses each occurred when she was coming into a race after a 15-day break, the same gap she will be facing here. Those two losses came as a two-year old, and she is clearly a much better three-year old.
SELECTIONS
I am looking forward to this race as much as any in recent years. The Mine That Bird/Rachel Alexandra match-up is tantalizing in so many ways. Even if that duel does not materialize, will the filly enter the stratosphere with a performance like her Oaks? Or, is Mine That Bird going to captivate the nation at a time we could use some escapism? If neither is the winner, I think almost anyone could win this event - but that just adds to the intrigue.
Quite frankly, I have a difficult, if not impossible, task of separating Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters, and Pioneerof the Nile. I honestly do not see how one could make a strong case for any one of them over the other.
Of the non-Derby entrants that do not have the first name of a woman, I think the most intriguing one is Take the Points. I look past those two synthetic Beyers to a 99 on fast dirt and think this is one who could make a move forward. I can see Big Drama holding on for a piece, but not the W.
I am going with the adage "pick bets, not horses." If Mine That Bird is near his morning line of 6-1, I will bet him to win.
WHO IS THE CAT GOING WITH?
For first-time readers, I have a cat named Barton, who was named after the first Triple Crown winner. Early on, he demonstrated an interest in handicapping. He once took a stack of losing parimutuel tickets from my dresser and spread them on my half of the bed, in what I construed to be either a taunting gesture or a remonstrance. Next he started sitting on the monitor while I worked on the Blue Ribbon Analysis. Before the 2003 Derby, he started jumping up and knocking down the refrigerator magnet for the New York-bred program. He was telling me to pay attention to Funny Cide. Although his method of making selections changed, he started a streak of successfully picking winners. Lately, he has been off (although I am not one to cast stones in this area). For this year's Preakness, he has displayed little interest, and I would not be surprised if he does not even watch the race.
So, you are really on your own now.
KENTUCKY DERBY 135
Final Edition
The storied Blue Ribbon Analysis is inching towards the 21st century by posting its content on-line for the first time. My hope was to be doing a regular blog during the prep season, but I have too much going on this year to do it. Perhaps it will happen after the Derby. I also hope to do regular blog postings about horse racing, as well as other matters, so check back to see if I succeed.
At the outset, let me identify the sources of the factual information contained here. The Daily Racing Form is my primary source, and I have also used material from The New York Times, Albany's Times Union, a Derby seminar hosted by the National Museum of Horse Racing, and the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac. All of the analytical material, including that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless noted otherwise.
I have had mixed feelings about this year's version of the race. Initially, I thought there were only three realistic possibilities for winning. There are, however, a number of interesting stories - many more than in recent years - making for intriguing possibilities. We have Sheik 'Mo from Dubai sending over two entrants, each of whom has already experienced success stateside. Will Pioneerof the Nile emulate the West Coast colts he has beaten and achieve success running on dirt for the first time? Is Dunkirk a special animal who can become the first horse in two centuries to win without having raced at two? Will Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez recover from last year's traumatic Derby and win with a colt who has not raced in seven weeks? And last, but certainly not least, will the retired school principal from Louisville, of all places, win the Kentucky Derby with the only horse he trains? I think I know what the post-race buzz will be, however, no matter who wins the Derby. Will Rachel Alexandra take on the boys in the Preakness? I just witnessed one of those rare jaw-dropping experiences - a filly who won the Kentucky Oaks by more than 20 lengths as if she were out for a pleasant gallop. Even as I write this, the HRTV commentators are discussing the fact that she is not nominated to the Triple Crown and would have to be supplemented. But, no matter what happens on Saturday, that winner will be immediately confronting the question of whether he is better than she.
And, in late breaking news - I have always wanted to write that - the morning line favorite and my pick to win, I Want Revenge, has been scratched because he jogged sore this morning. He now joins A.P. Indy and Buddha as morning line favorites scratching the morning of the race.
There is a lot going on in the sport of thoroughbred racing, almost all of it negative. I will save those rants and raves on the state of the game for the Preakness Analysis, although I may also start to blog it. This is a new medium for me, and I hope to get the hang of it quickly enough.
Here is this year's likely field, with trainer and jockey:
1) West Side Bernie (Kelly Breen/Stewart Elliott) - His claim to fame is running 2nd in I Want Revenge's Wood, missing by 1 1/2 lengths with a Beyer of 101. He has not crossed the finish line first in the 7 months since his victory in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile on Turfway's synthetic surface. Although his best Beyers have been on dirt, he does not appear to have the class to win this.
2) Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) - His only loss in six career starts was by 6 1/2 to General Quarters in Tampa Bay's Sam F. Davis. He came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby, making him the only two-time Derby winner in the field, not all that bad for a colt who brought only $15,000 at the Keeneland September yearlings sale. While his last Beyer improved to a 98, it is hard to see a son of Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare relishing a mile and one-quarter.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/John Velazquez) - He needed five starts to break his maiden, where he also ran his Beyer top of 96. In his last two starts, he ran 3rd on Santa Anita's synthetic in the Sham and Santa Anita Derby where he finished only 2 lengths in arrears to Pioneerof the Nile. The only reason to pick him for the win is the hope that he will improve significantly on dirt, a surface he has never tried.
4) Advice (Todd Pletcher/Rene Douglas) - It was a big deal not that long ago when Trainer Todd had five entrants in this race. This year he has three, and it is perhaps a measure of his chances to break an 0 for 21 Derby schneid that he is not getting much buzz. Not only that, but his main man, John Velazquez, is not even riding for him. It is unlikely this colt will be his ticket to the winner's circle. His only dirt start was a 5th in the Sunland Park Derby (77 Beyer), albeit with a troubled start, and his breeding of Chapel Road by a Hennessy mare is not exactly screaming, "give me 10 furlongs."
5) Hold Me Back (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux) - Every negative I just noted about the preceding entrant's race record applies to this guy. His only dirt start, in the Remsen, resulted in a fifth place finish and a 77 Beyer. His breeding, however, is of a different sort, being by Giant's Causeway from an Unbridled Song mare. I must be candid that I love Bill Mott as a trainer, and this entrant is not harmed my Desormeaux in the irons. A win would be a major upset, but a finish on the board is not out of the question.
6) Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) - I had kind of forgotten about this one. He last ran March 14 in a dominating win on a sloppy Fair Grounds race track. Trainer Jones apparently intended that this would be his last race before the big one, even though it is seven weeks out. He does have four excellent works since then, including a blistering 57 4/5 at Churchill. Trainer Jones does know how to get a horse ready for the Derby, having finished second in the last two runnings, including the ill-fated Eight Belles. While that fast work on April 27 was reminiscent of the much criticized fast one put in by Hard Spun, keep in mind that that entrant beat them all, except, of course, for one. One interesting negative I heard - and this is why horse racing is so infinitely fascinating - was advanced by Jean Wood, a commentator at the National Museum of Racing's Derby seminar. She had spoken with a trainer who thought that A.P. Indy's run well at the Fair Grounds, but often do not replicate that form elsewhere. (Speaking of fascinating, Saratoga Springs, which regularly has snow on the ground well into April, was experiencing the most beautiful day of the year this past Saturday. Nonetheless, 210 people from a small town showed up to hear about the Derby.) The colt has steadily increasing Beyers this year, culminating with a 104 on the Fair Grounds slop. It is a pattern I like to see with a Derby contender, making this guy one of my real strong possibilities. His biggest negative is not having yet run beyond 1 1/6 miles, but I am letting the trainer's recent Derby experience offset that factor.
7) Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) - This is an interesting animal. He has been running competitively with the best of this year's sophomore crop, running second in the Robert Lewis, splitting Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge, being second best to Friesan Fire's Louisiana Derby romp, and then winning the Arkansas Derby where he beat one-time Derby fave Old Fashioned (who came out of the race with an injury). His best Beyer is on the dirt, a 101 in the Hot Springs event, and he has the breeding (Smart Strike, Belong to Me mare) to suggest he could be a significant factor in this race. One troubling consideration, however, is his training at Churchill. He apparently worked a very disappointing 7 furlongs and had to come back the Thursday before the main event to breeze an even 34 seconds. If you think Friesan Fire's 57 and change on Monday is a cause for concern, you cannot like this guy's effort.
8) Mine That Bird (Bennie Wooley/Calvin Bo-rail) - How the mighty have fallen. I don't mean this gelding who has yet to run a Beyer exceeding 81, but jockey Borel, who was the toast of Louisville a mere two years ago with his paint-skimming victory on Street Sense. The jock is the only reason to like this one. I have never heard of the trainer ( a robust 1 for 32 this year), and a horse whose best fig is an 81 is not going to win the Kentucky Derby.
9) Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher/Chris DeCarlo) - He will be a prominent player in this year's race. Not because you will hear his name mentioned in the stretch call, but because he figures to be flying early. He only lost by a neck to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby (best Beyer of 90), but this colt has no chance to win, or even hit the board. Indeed, he has a good chance to lengthen Pletcher's streak of last place finishes to five.
10) Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor/Alan Garcia) - This son of Distorted Humor is a mortal lock to win money for you in this year's race. Go to Louisville bars on Friday night and bet all comers they cannot identify the top earner in this year's field. While knowledgeable fans will figure the winner of the UAE Derby is the one, most imbibing wagerers will focus on his 30-1 morning line. Can you make money if you bet on him to win? It is not out of the question. The Sheik of Dubai has vowed he will win America's most prestigious race. His earlier attempts have not resulted in a finish on the board, but this year could be different. He was the even-money winner in his first start at Saratoga (93 Beyer), beating at least two next-out winners. He went off as the favorite in the Grade 1 Norfolk on Santa Anita's synthetic surface. After moving his tack to Dubai, he ran 2nd to Desert Party twice before besting him in that Derby. In that last race he earned a Racing Post rating of 112, which I translate to a 100 Beyer.
11) Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith) - He will get some wise guy play. He not only finished in front of probable favorite I Want Revenge, but closed well to lose by only a length to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby. He has never raced on dirt and, similar to Pioneerof the Nile, one can only play him if one assumes he will improve his best synthetic Beyer (94) by at least 10 points when he makes the surface switch.
12) General Quarters (Thomas McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) - There is one certainty about this team - they will be this year's "feel good" story. The horse was a Keeneland yearling purchase for only $20,000, and then was claimed in his first start for $20K - from an owner who is a major player and, apparently, one of the least likeable individuals in thoroughbred racing. The colt has gone on to win over $600,000, including W's in the Sam F. Davis and Keeneland's Grade 1 Blue Grass. The owner is a retired school principal from - of all places - Louisville, KY. This is not only the only horse he trains, but the colt's earnings have surpassed the trainer's combined earnings over the last 19 years. Before acquiring his Derby hopeful, trainer McCarthy had been in the winner's circle only 13 times in the preceding 18 years. It is hard not to root for someone who so loves this sport and has persevered all this time. Can he win and bring a tear to every eye not already moist from the playing of My Old Kentucky Home? No. Winning the synthetic Blue Grass almost guarantees an up-the-track finish in the Derby. The colt's breeding - sired by Sky Mesa - is likely to come up short over 10 furlongs.
13) I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) - SCRATCHED In my opinion, no entrant had a more impressive race than this colt's Wood Memorial. He broke poorly, taking him out of his normal running style, ran into serious traffic as he was about to make his move, and still won easily. His first six races were on southern California artificial surfaces where he demonstrated competence, but had no one saying probable Derby winner. He was twice beaten by Pioneerof the Nile, albeit by small margins. When he headed to New York to run on real dirt, he became a different - dominating - race horse. He won the Gotham by 8 1/2, earning a 113 Beyer. His eventful trip in the Wood resulted in a 103, a remarkable number considering all the trouble he seen. There is nothing not to like about this horse. His jockey, Joe Talamo, on the other hand, has less Kentucky Derby experience than I do. His only exposure was as a one-time race goer, and I have been over 15 times. He does, however, have a considerable weight advantage. As a 19-year old making his first Derby start, one has to be somewhat concerned that the circus atmosphere on Churchill could unnerve him. Trainer Mullins also has some negatives as well, although not of the sort that could harm his colt's performance. On Wood Memorial day, he was observed injecting another of his horses with a drug, causing the horse to be scratched from the race and Mullins being hit with a suspension. Nothing like yet another drug incident after last year's steroid controversy to drum up interest in the sport. There is another major negative. One of the owners is IEAH, the oleaginous owners of Big Brown. Last year, I discussed how these guys gave Wall Street a bad name because of their apparent shenanigans when that was their day-time job. That was back in the day, however, before Wall Street gave itself a bad name and, as is now apparent, these clowns were typical of that "profession," not outliers.
14) Atomic Rain (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) - Kelly Breen has one less entrant than Bob Baffert, Nick Zito and Wayne Lukas combined? If the race were at Monmouth Park, he might be the post-time favorite, since every horse ridden by Joe Bravo at the Jersey shore is. Ironically, this colt's only win came at Monmouth in his first career start. He has since been winless, twice losing first level allowance races. He is a great bet to run last.
15) Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) - I love this talented colt. Not because I think he will win, but because he will attract a lot of the wise guy money, driving up the price on other more likely winners. He is undefeated, with all three wins coming this year. Let me be the first to tell you - no horse has won the Derby without racing as a two-year old since Apollo in 1882. (Apollo, incidentally, is also one of the few geldings to win America's race.) I used to be a big believer in historical trends being an excellent indicator of Derby success. But the traditional standards have been falling by the wayside - say hello to Strike the Gold (dosage), Funny Cide (gelding and New York bred), Barbaro (no race within four weeks), and Street Sense (only two races as a three-year old). So, I am no longer trapped by history, but I do not think this guy is ready to win this one. From my perspective, he was one very tired animal after making an impressive move in the Florida Derby that fell short of catching Quality Road. He is not one who looked like he was hoping for another furlong. I think another consideration - mentioned by my spouse and breeding expert - is that when owners spend $3.7 mil for a yearling, they are probably thinking Derby, not the Mass Cap, and will enter no matter what.
16) Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) - Let me get something out of the way right off the bat. Is this name so great that you would run two words together to stay within The Jockey Club's lmit of 18 characters (including spaces)? I find running all the words together tacky enough, but this? The one thing that would salvage this name is if they brought jockey R.L. Ffrench from overseas to ride him. Having said that, your success in betting this race depends on how you assess his chances. He wil be the second or third choice, but has never run on dirt. Among his five synthetic wins are four consecutive ones in either Grade I or Grade 2 events. After the Robert Lewis, where he beat both Papa Clem and I Want Revenge, he was my Derby pick. But then his next two, I thought, were not impressive even though he won both. Much is made of the fact that horses losing to this colt went on to win the two major Derby preps on dirt. I Want Revenge moved east after two losses to Pioneerof the Nile and became a seeming monster. Papa Clem followed the same eastern trek, taking down the Arkansas Derby in the process. Can this colt so the same? Quite frankly, no one knows, least of all me. His top Beyer has been a 96. While I Want Revenge upgraded 21 points to a 113 and then a 103 in his trouble trip Wood, Papa Clem improved ten points to a 101. If you like Pioneerof the Nile, you have to project an improvement of 15 points or more.
17) Summer Bird (Tim Ice/C.R. Rosier) - This colt makes Dunkirk look like a grizzled veteran. While each has only three career starts, this guy didn't make it to the starting line until March 1. Should he win, you can expect to see half of next year's field coming into the Derby with only two months of experience. He did run impressively in the Arkansas Derby, closing well to finish 1 1/4 lengths back of Papa Clem, earning a 99 Beyer. Nonetheless, I cannot see such a lightly raced horse wearing roses.
18) Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Shaun Bridgmohan) - Unfortunately for his connections, there will be nowhere to hide when you appear before 150,000 fans at the scene and millions more on TV and computer monitors around the world. He took five starts to break his maiden and he has since finished fourth in three straight stakes races. His Beyer top of 90 has been followed with two successive declining numbers. This is not the direction to be moving in for the biggest race in this country.
19) Desert Party (Saeed bin Suroor/Ramon Dominguez) - He is the other part of the uncoupled entry from the sands of Dubai. Purchased as a two-year old for $2.1 million, he won Saratoga's Sanford as the odds-on choice on a muddy track. After experiencing trouble in the Hopeful, finishing 6th, he moved to Dubai where he twice beat Regal Ransom in preps for the UAE Derby before losing to his stable mate by 1/2 length in the Run for the Oil, earning the equivalent of a 99 Beyer. I think he has a definite shot to make an impression in the Derby and is a threat to hit the board at a square price.
20) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) - There was a time when Wayne Lukas was criticized for running horses in the Derby with the apparent sole intent of keeping his string of consecutive Derby starts intact. He stopped doing it after the immortal Deeds Not Words finished last about 10 years ago. This colt appears to be in that not-so-proud tradition since he appears to have a much better shot of finishing last than first. He hasn't won in seven starts since breaking his maiden at Saratoga. While he did run a good second in Hold Me Back's Lane's End on polytrack, earning his Beyer top of 94, he was not impressive in a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby.
SELECTIONS
There are two very important factors in arriving at a selection, neither one of which lends itself to analysis until the week of the race. The first is the track condition. As I write this, I am watching the Oaks card where the track is sloppy, with more rain in the forecast. Who will benefit from an off track? We saw what Friesan Fire is capable of when the dirt turns to mud. Others who have run well on an off surface include Nowhere to Hide (at Belmont) and Desert Party (stakes win at the Spa). Those who have displayed a negative affinity are Flying Private (Saratoga) and Join in the Dance (Monmouth and Churchill where he did run 2nd, but with a 51 Beyer). Keep in mind also, that those who have only run on a synthetic surface have not had the opportunity to display form on a wet track. A second measure of likely wet track affinity is in the Tomlinson number, a numerical ranking published in the Daily Racing Form that attempts to predict performance based on pedigree. I have a significant problem with the Tomlinsons because they are based only on the first generation of parents. While they can be accurate when the number is high (indicating possible proficiency on the surface), they often are horrible when the number is low. That, of course, is good if one is looking for a wagering angle if one hopes others are following the low number and discounting a horse's chances. The only two entrants with comparatively low numbers are Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird, neither of whom I would discount if the track is wet. In other words, I will not be using the Tomlinsons in my handicapping.
The second factor that is of crucial importance is how horses are training over the Churchill Downs strip. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form has shown himself to be a knowledgeable observer over the years. Based on his reporting, I would be concerned about Desert Party, General Quarters, Musket Man, and Summer Bird. Those he found impressive include Advice, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Regal Ransom and West Side Bernie.
With I Want Revenge out of the race, I think this becomes a much more wide-open event. I was hoping to get a better price on Friesan Fire, but the possibility of a wet track will probably dash those hopes. I think that Regal Ransom is a very live long shot, and that Hold Me Back could be a nice-priced factor in the exotic wagers, and I think either could win at juicy mutuels. Horses that are likely to be short prices that I do not like include Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk and Papa Clem. I think it will be very difficult to leave Pioneer out of the exotics, but will not have that problem with the other two.
WHO IS THE CAT GOING WITH?
I know most of you scroll immediately to this section, even if I put it last in the hope you read my stuff. Even though I did not put in the time I have in other years because of time constraints, Barton showed no interest at all until I was writing about one of the entrants. He circled around me, brushing his tail against my legs, then jumping into my lap, purring loudly and nuzzling me as I wrote about one horse. That one is Desert Party. Is it because he is out of a Tabasco Cat mare? How do I know? I do know that when I started writing about the next one on the list - Flying Private - he jumped down as if someone had just opened a can of tuna.